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Water weaponisation and hydro-coercive negotiation: Rethinking hydropolitics, power and interdependence in the Syrian conflict (2012-2020)

Ahmed Haj Asaad
Geo Expertise, Geneva, Switzerand; ahmed.haj.asaad@geoexpertise.org

Elodie Feijoo Seara
Geo Expertise, Geneva, Switzerand; elodie.feijoo@graduateinstitute.ch

Ieman Hajasaad
Geo Expertise, Joubas, Idlib, Syria; ieman.haj.asaad@gmail.com

ABSTRACT: Between 2012 and 2020 in Syria, water was weaponised, but the manner of its weaponisation was constrained by the material and infrastructural characteristics of the country’s water system. Weaponisation took the form of infrastructure targeting, flow manipulation and access denial; at the same time, forms of interaction were structured by interdependence and material constraints. Drawing on geospatial analysis, remote sensing and interview-based data, this article develops the concept of hydro-coercive negotiation to explain how access to water emerges through the interaction of asymmetrical power relations, coercive pressure and infrastructural interdependence. The findings identify four overlapping configurations through which actors engage in temporary and reversible forms of coordination; these are: mutual dependency, resource-based exchange, truce-based arrangements, and civilian solidarity. These dynamics challenge binary interpretations of water as a source of either conflict or cooperation, highlighting instead its role as a sociotechnical system that simultaneously produces coercion, constraint and negotiated interdependence.

KEYWORDS: Water weaponisation, Hydro-Coercive Negotiation, hydropolitics, hydrocoercion, water governance, Syria