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The unique Brazilian model of water privatisation: An exploration of the processes shaping a financialised oligopoly

Gustavo do Amaral Loureiro
King’s College London, Rio Branco Chair (2025-2026), London, United Kingdom / Núcleo de Estudos Atores e Agendas de Política Externa (NEAAPE) – UERJ / Centro Interinstitucional de Análise de Políticas Sociais (CIAPSoc) – UFMG; gus.amaral7@gmail.com

João Paulo Nicolini Gabriel
King’s College London, London, United Kingdom; joaopaulo.nicolinigabriel@gmail.com

Bárbara Furtado Barra
University of Greenwich, London, United Kingdom / René Rachou Institute, Fiocruz Minas, Belo Horizonte, Brazil; bbarra@aluno.fiocruz.br

Alex Moura de Souza Aguiar
King’s College London, Rio Branco Chair (2025-2026), London, United Kingdom / SMARH-UFMG, Belo Horizonte, Brazil; alex.aguiar@kcl.ac.uk

Alex Loftus
King’s College London, London, United Kingdom; alex.loftus@kcl.ac.uk

Andreza Aruska de Souza Santos
King’s Brazil Institute, King’s College London, London, United Kingdom; andreza.souza_santos@kcl.ac.uk

Léo Heller
King’s College London, Rio Branco Chair (2025-2026), London, United Kingdom / René Rachou Institute, Fiocruz Minas, Belo Horizonte, Brazil; leo.heller@fiocruz.br

ABSTRACT: With the global rate of water privatisation either slowing or going into reverse, the water and sanitation sector in Brazil stands as an outlier. This paper develops an in-depth analysis of the Brazilian model, arguing that the privatisation of water services represents not simply a transfer of ownership but a process of profound sectoral re-engineering. The theoretical framework combines a Marxist approach to political economy with a neoinstitutionalist analysis. Empirical content is drawn from legislation, documents on regulatory standards, concession contracts, official reports, auction documents, and financial prospectuses. The paper’s findings reveal three structural features: the rapid expansion of privatisation, the oligopolisation of service provision, and the increasing financialisation of operating firms’ ownership structures. These structural features have emerged in a context of political de-risking and disenfranchisement of social movements. The paper goes on to analyse five drivers of the privatisation process: the influence of international finance, regulatory stability as a de-risking strategy, the influence of interest groups, a neoliberal shift in Brazilian politics, and the federal government’s role as anchor and guarantor of privatisation. The paper concludes by questioning whether the Brazilian experiment will catalyse a new wave of water privatisation worldwide or whether it will come to be viewed as another chapter in the failure of neoliberal policies more broadly. Taken together, the findings situate the Brazilian case within broader debates around the reform of public services under financialised capitalism.

KEYWORDS: Water and sanitation, privatisation, financialisation, oligopolisation, Brazil