Popular

Predicting floods to protect property regimes: Situating flood modelling in the River Poddle Catchment, Dublin

Laure de Tymowski
Maynooth University, Maynooth, Ireland; laure.detymowski.2021@mumail.ie

Elliot Hurst
Independent researcher, Canberra, Australia; ehurst@posteo.net

ABSTRACT: Water models are world-making devices that stabilise or remake social structures and power relations. This has spurred calls for deeper explorations of how models are situated within historical and political contexts. The paper examines the flood model used for flood management planning in the River Poddle catchment in Dublin, Ireland. Starting from the death of Celia de Jesus during a 2011 flood in this catchment, we argue that Dublin’s neoliberal property regime is an essential context for situating this model. Using a method grounded in discourse analysis and interdisciplinary dialogue, our situating approach follows the modelling process across two levels: the policy context and the model outputs and outcomes. Irish flood management policy sets strong boundaries for modelling, while embedding property assumptions in the model’s aims, scenarios and maps. Model outputs are shown to effectively serve the interests of real estate actors while negatively impacting those marginalised in property relations. Our critical situating has important implications for those hoping to use or critique models in order to challenge injustice.

KEYWORDS: Flood modelling, situated knowledge, property regime, land justice, Dublin, Ireland