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A politics of global datasets and models in flood risk management

Joshua Cohen
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; j.b.cohen@leeds.ac.uk

Anna Mdee
School of Politics and International Studies. University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; a.l.mdee@leeds.ac.uk

Mark A. Trigg
School of Civil Engineering, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; m.trigg@leeds.ac.uk

Shivani Singhal
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; s.singhal@leeds.ac.uk

Sarah Cooper
University of Liverpool, United Kingdom, Liverpool, United Kingdom; s.j.cooper2@liverpool.ac.uk

Abel Negussie Alemu
Water Technology Institute, Arba Minch University, Arba Minch, Ethiopia; nugussie2127@gmail.com

Eden Seifu
Addis Ababa university, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; eden.seifu@aau.edu.et

Cindy Lee Ik Sing
Faculty of Medical Sciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle, United Kingdom; and Newcastle University Medicine, Iskandar Puteri, Malaysia; cindy.lee@ncl.ac.uk

Mark V. Bernhofen
Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, Oxford, United Kingdom; mark.bernhofen@eci.ox.ac.uk

Ajay Bhave
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; a.g.bhave@leeds.ac.uk

Andrew Carr
Water Consultancy Division, Mott Macdonald, Glasgow, UK; andrew.b.carr@googlemail.com

C.T. Dhanya
Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), New Delhi, India; dhanya@civil.iitd.ac.in

Alemseged Tamiru Haile
International Water Management Institute (IWMI), Ethiopia; a.t.haile@cgiar.org

Leonairo Pencue-Fierro
GOL/GEA, Universidad del Cauca, Popayán, Colombia; leonairo@unicauca.edu.co

Zulfaqar Sa’adi
Centre for Environmental Sustainability and Water Security, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Johor, Malaysia; zulfaqar19863@gmail.com

Prabhakar Shukla
Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), New Delhi, India; prabhakar.gcrf@gmail.com

Yady Tatiana Solano-Correa
Faculty of Engineering and Sciences, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Cali, Colombia; tatiana.solano@javerianacali.edu.co

Jaime Amezaga
Faculty of Engineering and Sciences, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Cali, Colombia; jaime.amezaga@newcastle.ac.uk

Shambhavi Gupta
School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle, United Kingdom; guptashambhavi5@gmail.com

Ashok Kumar
School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, New York, USA; a.kumar@spa.ac.in

Adey Nigatu Mersha
School of Planning and Architecture; New Delhi, India; adey.n@wlrc-eth.org

Zainura Zainon Noor
Water and Land Resource Centre (WLRC), Ethiopia; zainurazn@utm.my

Alesia Ofori
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Johor, Malaysia; alesia.ofori@cranfield.ac.uk

Tilaye Worku Bekele
Faculty of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Cranfield University, UK; tworkcon@gmail.com

ABSTRACT: Momentum and interest have gathered around global flood risk datasets and models (GFMs). Such tools are often argued to be particularly useful in contexts where relevant data – such as stream flow and human settlement location – is sparse, inconsistent, or non-existent. As a relatively new technology, the technical limitations of GFMs – as specifically technical methodological challenges – have been quite well explored in existing literature. However, through engagement with literature, government policy documents and plans, and interviews with academic and commercial experts in Colombia, Ethiopia, India, Malaysia, and the UK, we show that their relevance and utility in reality cross-cut the technical, the political, and the social.

We argue that GFMs risk becoming another means through which states and other powerful actors re-imagine floods as technical challenges, while they are at root political-economic dilemmas (cf. Ferguson, 1994). This is linked to the ways that such technologies advance, becoming increasingly computationally powerful and accurate, and to the mutually reinforcing roles they play in relation to various 'fantasy plans' produced by governmental and other agencies (Weinstein et al., 2019). By focussing on an extended case study in the Akaki Catchment, Ethiopia, we argue that such fantasy plans – like those blueprinting urban development – serve to buttress state power through the performance of stability and reliability, while they avoid effectively tackling, or may even exacerbate, the political-economic realities which drive unequitable and unsustainable development. Such forms of development are directly linked to increasing flood risk both locally and globally.

KEYWORDS: Global datasets, global models, flood risk management, politics, fantasy plans